Race Plan & Training Calendar
Erie → Philadelphia → Big Beach → Pittsburgh ’27 → Rabid Raccoon 100 mi
Schedule generated live from the plan
This week
Calendar
Every day from now to the 100-miler. Dot = how the day went vs plan. Click any day for the score and run details.
A on plan · B close · C off-plan · missed · rest kept · 🏁 race
The year
Five start lines, one progression. Dates/goals marked ± are estimates — confirm and I’ll re-pace.
How grading works: each past day compares what you ran (Strava)
against what was scheduled. Volume within ±20% of plan = A, ±35% = B, ran but well off = C,
scheduled run missed = M, rest day honored = ✓ (running on a rest day scores C — rest is part of
the plan). Pace discipline: on road easy days and long runs, averaging well faster than the easy zone
drops the grade one letter — easy days easy is the whole point. Quality/MP days are graded on volume only
(average pace over intervals and recoveries is meaningless) and trail runs skip pace checks (vert distorts pace).
Week grade is the average. Future days aren’t graded.
Where your pace is right now
Projected from your Strava training and your May marathon. Estimates, not a guarantee.
Most recent marathon
2:51:06
6:32/mi · Pittsburgh Marathon · May 3
Projected now
~2:50:00
6:29/mi · current fitness
Erie A-goal
2:45:00
6:18/mi
Gap to close
11 sec/mi
faster than projected
Read: at 55–70 mi/wk with real marathon-pace volume, 2:45 moves from stretch to a live target. You’re about 11 sec/mi off it today, and the aerobic strength from this mileage plus Erie’s flat course is exactly how you close that gap. I’d still open Erie at 2:47 (6:22/mi) and roll into 2:45 over the back half if the legs are there. Bank the fitness first; a negative split beats going out at 6:18 and fading.
Why 2:45 is live — evidence from your log
Every number below is verified from your Strava history, not projected.
| Signal | Number | What it says |
|---|---|---|
| Marathon trend | 3:25:55 → 2:59:59 → 2:51:06 | −8:53 in the last twelve months alone. The curve hasn’t flattened yet. |
| Half split | 1:25:07 | Run inside the 2:51 marathon — not fresh. 2:45 needs 1:22:30 halves; a fresh, tapered half is already close. |
| 10K speed | 37:27 (6:02/mi) | Inside the EQT 10 Miler. Your threshold speed clears 2:45 pace by 16 sec/mi — the engine isn’t the limiter, durability at MP is. |
| Race HR | 177 avg / 189 max | The 2:51 was run in upper Z4 with headroom. Economy and MP volume, not effort ceiling, are where the 11 sec/mi comes from. |
| Durability bank | 100K · 17:19:48 | Rabid Raccoon (May 30) plus the trail block since = an aerobic base most 2:45 marathoners don’t have. Miles 20–26 are your edge now. |
Goal-pace splits
Where you should hit each checkpoint. Print this or put it on your wrist.
| Checkpoint | 2:47 target | 2:45 A-goal |
|---|---|---|
| 5K | 19:47 | 19:33 |
| 10K | 39:35 | 39:06 |
| 10 mi | 1:03:42 | 1:02:56 |
| Half | 1:23:30 | 1:22:30 |
| 30K | 1:58:44 | 1:57:19 |
| 20 mi | 2:07:23 | 2:05:52 |
| Marathon | 2:47:00 | 2:45:00 |
Your training paces & heart rate
Paces anchored to 2:45 marathon pace (6:18/mi). HR zones are your current Strava zones (age-derived — your real max is at least 200, seen Oct 2025). Keep easy days honestly easy: that means under 153 bpm, no negotiating.
| Zone | Pace range | Heart rate |
|---|---|---|
| Easy / recovery | 7:38–8:28/mi | ≤153 (Z2) |
| Long run | 7:13–8:08/mi | ≤160 late-run drift OK |
| Marathon pace (2:45) | 6:14–6:22/mi | ~170–180 (Z4) |
| Threshold / tempo | 5:56–6:04/mi | ~180–185 |
| Interval (5K-ish) | 5:33–5:45/mi | 184+ (Z5) |
Two data-hygiene fixes in Strava/Garmin before the block starts:
- Your Strava run-pace zones are still anchored to a 2:57 marathon sample — two PRs ago. Update the reference race to 2:51 (or set zones off this table) so workout zone-coloring stops flattering you.
- HR zones are age-formula (max 187), but you’ve recorded 200 bpm (Oct 2025) and hit 189 while averaging 177 for a full marathon. Set max HR to ~200 in Garmin so Z2 caps nearer 160 — otherwise “easy” readings run hot all block.
Race-day kit & fueling
From your gear log and what actually happened in past races — decided now so nothing is new on race day.
| Role | Pick | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Race shoe | Alphafly 4 (59 mi logged) | The 2:51 shoe. Fresh enough for both race days plus two MP dress rehearsals — use it for the wk-4 and wk-7 MP long runs, nothing else. |
| MP workouts | Alphafly 3 (336 mi) | Dying an honorable death — let it absorb the remaining MP sessions. |
| Daily / tempo | Adizero EVO SL | 841 mi across two pairs says it all. Pair 2 has ~380 mi — plan a pair 3 mid-Philly-block. |
| Recovery days | Speedgoat 6, on trail | Keeps easy days honest (trail slows you down) and keeps the vert habit from the ultra block. |
| Socks | Injinji, always past 16 mi | Your own rule — cotton past 16 in the EVO SLs ended in blisters. |
| Fuel | Plan |
|---|---|
| Primary gel | Precision PF — your #1, never upsets the stomach. 1 every ~25 min ≈ 6 total. |
| Caffeine | BPN Go Gel Caffeine ×1–2 max, at ~mile 16 and ~21. |
| Hard ceiling | 7 gels. The 9-gel BPN experiment at Pittsburgh hurt by mile 20 — proven mistake, don’t rerun it. |
| Rehearsal | Full race fueling on every MP long run (wks 2–5 Erie, 3–7 Philly). Gut training is training. |
| Erie note | Two-loop course = your crew can hand bottles at the same spot twice per loop. Decide gel-vs-course-fluids by wk 4 and rehearse exactly that. |
Where you’re starting from: since the 100K (May 30) you’ve been running roughly 25–35 trail miles a week with real vert — 1,200–2,300 ft on the big days — plus a couple of fast road sessions (5:40/mi threshold work in June). That’s a recovery block that kept the engine warm, so wk 1’s 46 miles is a step, not a shock. The discipline that matters in wks 1–3: easy days at 7:38+ and under ~155 bpm, even when it feels slow. The trail legs will make road MP feel flat — that’s the point.
Assumptions I made (tell me to change any):
- Erie = Erie Marathon at Presque Isle on Lake Erie, Sun Sep 13, 2026 (flat BQ course). Philly = TIAA Philadelphia Marathon, Sun Nov 22, 2026.
- Philly A-goal set to 2:43 as a natural progression. Give me your real number and I’ll re-pace it.
- 6–7 run days/week with doubles at peak: peaks of 62 (Erie) and 70 (Philly) mi/wk. This is aggressive off a deload but earned by your ultra base. Back off a week if sleep, soreness, or niggles stack up.
- Laurel Highlands 50K stays on the calendar as “upcoming” — if it lands inside either block, tell me the date and I’ll restructure around it.
- New blocks (dates ± estimates, tell me the real ones): Big Beach Marathon ~Sun Jan 31 2027 (~2:42), Pittsburgh Marathon ~Sun May 2 2027 (~2:39), Rabid Raccoon 100 mi, Beaver PA ~Sat May 29 2027 — finish-focused, sub-30h pacing bands, trail rules apply.
- Pittsburgh ’27 → 100-miler is only ~4 weeks: that bridge is recovery + two specific back-to-back long weekends + taper. Pittsburgh effectively doubles as the last hard effort of the 100-mile build.
- This is a training template, not certified coaching or medical advice. Adjust to how you feel and back off any pain.